Xprob

Track record

EVERY PREDICTION LOGGED PRE-KICKOFF, SCORED AFTERWARDS

UPDATED SEP 1, 2026
PREDICTIONS1since Aug 25, 2026
LOG LOSS0.633n=1 matches
BRIER0.331n=1 matches

Hit rate by market

Both teams to score0.0%n=1
Over / under 2.5 goals0.0%n=1
1X2 — win / draw / loss100.0%n=1

Calibration

When the model says 70%, that pick should come in roughly 70% of the time. Bars are observed outcomes; ticks are what was predicted.

50–60

Week by week

ALL LOGGED PRE-KICKOFF
PUBLISHEDN1X2BOTH SCOREO/U
Sep 1, 202612:00 AM1100%0%0%
Aug 30, 202612:00 AM1070%90%60%
Aug 25, 202612:00 AM1100%100%100%

Every prediction is written to a public log before kickoff and scored afterwards. Weeks are never removed, reweighted or restated.

Where we are weak

Our largest calibration gap is in the 50–60% band: we predicted 53% on average, but it happened 100% of the time (n=1).